Russia's Lavrov Visits Tehran to Discuss US War and Regional Security
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrives in Tehran for his first visit since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 10% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 13:37 UTC | 9% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 19 October at 15:15 UTC. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 20 October at 16:01 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Russia — the market puts it at 6%, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays inside Russia between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not meet this condition within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news about EU sanctions for the resolution criteria, but only Trump's physical presence in Russia matters.
- Russia — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Russia before January 1, 2029. This meeting must occur after their scheduled August 15, 2025 encounter in Alaska. Readers often mistake the location of the earlier Alaska meeting for the decisive event, but only a subsequent meeting on Russian soil counts.
- Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls any part of Kherson city by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, as shown on the ISW map. Control must be confirmed by shading under specific layers like Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain and must persist through the next full daily update cycle.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Russia 6% −2
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- Kalshi Russia 7%
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- Polymarket Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026? 3%
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