Gen-Z Kenyans Could Determine William Ruto’s Future
Young activists hope to deny the unpopular president a second term next year.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 15 Oct 2026. The Economist published first, on 15 October at 12:50 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- William Ruto — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2035. The market resolves to Yes if William Ruto leaves office before any other listed leader. It resolves to No if he remains in office longer than all of them. Readers often mistake the deadline for a specific date, but the outcome depends solely on who departs first.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi William Ruto 5%
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In this story
- William Ruto
- Kenyans