Fury v Joshua fight proceeds as commercial spectacle rather than pure sporting merit
The long-awaited bout is positioned at the intersection of high commercial potential and minimal competitive risk.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 38% |
| 10 Oct, 00:46 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 40% |
| 9 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 41% |
| 9 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 40% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 41% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 41% |
| 7 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 14:28 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 12:45 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 00:40 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 13:12 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 14:03 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 01:17 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 05:00 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 34% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 15:35 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Sept, 11:34 UTC | 0% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Oct 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 8 October at 07:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Anthony Joshua — the market puts it at 40%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 26 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Anthony Joshua wins the scheduled boxing match against Tyson Fury on December 11, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific fight. Readers often mistake the confirmation of the event for the resolution condition, but only the actual winner matters.
- Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua — the market puts it at 85%, with $63 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight each other in a sanctioned boxing match during 2026. It resolves to No if they do not compete against one another within that year. Readers often mistake the announcement date of the fight for the actual resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Anthony Joshua 40% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua 85%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Fury
- Joshua