Germany's far-right AfD scores major election gains as ruling CDU loses ground
The Alternative for Germany party wins key regional votes, excluding Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union from a state parliament for the first time.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by The New York Times, 1h 50m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 75 more published before price tracking began
Price data
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Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 respond.
The story so far
22 publishers have covered this in 109 articles since 6 Sept 2026. The New York Times published first, on 6 September at 04:01 UTC; News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24 followed 1h 51m later. The most recent article, from Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, appeared on 23 September at 20:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Finance & economics (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Fox News Politics, BBC Politics and 10 more, all listed under Sources below.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before September 30, 2026, or if he announces his resignation or removal before that deadline. The No outcome applies if he remains in office through the entire period. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers a Yes resolution regardless of when the change officially takes effect.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The New York TimesIn Germany, Ulrich Siegmund Is Bringing the AfD to the Cusp of Power—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Germany's far-right AfD eyes historic state victory in Saxony-Anhalt election—
- Fox News WorldAnti-migrant AfD seeks to break Germany’s political ‘firewall’ in historic state election—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Germany’s far-right AfD wins big in key state election but falls short of majority—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24'Ready to talk': German far right celebrates victory in Saxony-Anhalt—
- BBC PoliticsAfD celebrate projected win in Saxony-Anhalt—
- Deutsche WelleSaxony-Anhalt election: Why the AfD is so strong—
- Deutsche WelleGermany set to feel the impact of Saxony-Anhalt's AfD win—
- Deutsche WelleSaxony-Anhalt: Digesting the AfD's landmark election win—
- AxiosAfD just won 44% in a German state. Now Germany's firewall faces its biggest test.—
Show 99 later sources
- The EconomistThe Alternative for Germany has won its best-ever election result—
- The New York TimesGermany’s Far Right Just Misses Majority in Crucial State Election—
- Fox News WorldGermany’s far-right party AfD surges to historic victory in state election—
- CBS News PoliticsFar-right AfD wins big in German regional election, falls short of majority—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Germany's Merz vows to stick with reforms despite election drubbing by far right—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Germany’s Merz 'deeply shocked' by far-right AfD's historic electoral victory—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24'Jubilation and pain': German far right marches to victory in key state election—
- The New York TimesGermany’s AfD Could Win Its First State Government. Here’s What to Know.—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24'We’re all in crisis': Populist far-right 'trend' sweeping across Europe—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24How far-right AfD breakthrough may ‘cause absolute chaos’ in Germany—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Saxony-Anhalt poll: 'A huge blow for the CDU, but also a huge win for the AfD'—
- The New York TimesAfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Sends a Signal to Europe—
- Deutsche WelleChancellor Merz says AfD result 'changes all of Germany'—
- The Hill NewsGerman far-right party candidate thanks Musk after state election win—
- Deutsche WelleAfD wants to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt — but how?—
- Deutsche WelleSaxony-Anhalt: Germany wakes up to 'unsettling' AfD victory—
- The New York TimesAfter Victory in German State, Far Right Needs Help to Take Power—
- The New York TimesGermany’s ‘Firewall’ Against the Far Right Is Being Tested as Never Before—
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Only the beginning? German far right's breakthrough shakes Europe to its core—
- businessinsider.comAfrican migrants fear what comes next as far-right AfD wins 44% in German state election—
- ABC NewsGerman chancellor faces pressure after far-right party wins in state election—
- ABC NewsGerman vote shows rise of far right in Europe, but it hasn’t been a steady march—
- Deutsche WelleBSW and AfD – a political love-hate relationship in Germany—
- The New York TimesAfD’s Far Right Win Puts New Pressure on Germany’s Leader Merz—
- The New York TimesContaining Germany’s Far Right—
- National ReviewGermany’s Mess—
- The EconomistWhat should Germany do about its rising right?—
- Deutsche WelleGerman economy frets about Saxony-Anhalt election results—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraAnti-AfD protesters rally in Cologne after far-right election win—
- Latest articlesFar right’s victory clouds Merz’s reform agenda as ally seeks changes—
- Times of IndiaThousands protest in Germany as far-right AfD eyes first govt since Nazi Party—
- News FeedWho is voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany?—
- Latest articlesGermany is in a very dark place — and time’s running out—
- ABC NewsGerman far-right party taunts chancellor after its election triumph. He says it won't win a majority—
- Fox News PoliticsTrump hails 'really big night' for populists in German election after historic victory—
- South China Morning PostFar-right election win in Germany adds uncertainty to shaky China-EU relations—
- AxiosTrump calls to Make Germany Great Again. In Germany, nostalgia carries a dark past.—
- Finance & economicsCan Germany’s economic recovery outrun the AfD?—
- South China Morning PostFar-right AfD party won big in Saxony-Anhalt. Will it affect Germany’s approach to China?—
- News FeedHard left holds key to Germany’s first far-right state premiership—
- Mother JonesThe Far Right Can’t Stand Being Called “Far Right”—
- Latest articlesThe far right’s political victory in Germany is great news for Putin—
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Far right lead in upcoming state election polls—
- Deutsche WelleTurks in Germany anxious after AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt—
- News FeedThe AfD won’t stop with Saxony-Anhalt—
- News FeedGermany’s nostalgia problem—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany: AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz's CDU slumps to 7%—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany: Protests follow AfD election victory—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesTens of thousands protest against far-right AfD party in Germany—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTens of thousands march across Germany to protest far-right party AfD—
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Thousands protest against AfD in Düsseldorf—
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Lower Saxony local polls in focus after AfD win—
- Times of IndiaMass protests erupt in Germany as AfD eyes breakthrough in eastern states—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany: Thousands rally against far-right after AfD victory—
- Deutsche WelleGermany: CDU ahead in Lower Saxony local election—
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Merz's CDU comes out on top in Lower Saxony polls—
- Deutsche WelleUkraine: AfD questions German aid, Berlin remains committed—
- Deutsche WelleFar-right AfD puts pressure on German aid to Ukraine—
- Deutsche WelleEast German leader styles self as one-woman bulwark to AfD—
- Deutsche WelleSPD governor campaigns as one-woman bulwark against AfD—
- Deutsche WelleSPD state premier campaigns as one-woman bulwark against AfD—
- Deutsche WelleBerlin election driven by radical ideas—
- Deutsche WelleSocialist Left leads far-right AfD ahead of Berlin vote—
- Deutsche WelleKnobloch: Thoughts of the Nazi era are back in everyday life—
- News FeedIn Germany’s east, old ties to Moscow fuel AfD rise—
- South China Morning PostAfter far-right AfD win, Germany’s embattled chancellor faces more election tests5%
- Deutsche WelleGermany's judges seek to prevent AfD justice abuse6%▲1 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleJudges: As AfD ascends, Germany must bolster justice system6%
- Deutsche Welle'No compromises': Far-right AfD has few potential partners6%
- Deutsche WelleMecklenburg-Western Pomerania: SPD seeks to fend off AfD6%
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Campaigns wrap up in two state elections6%
- Deutsche WelleMecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Will economy shape the vote?6%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany braces for key state elections where far right party AfD seeks another breakthrough6%
- NPR WorldCould Germany's far-right AfD party gain ground in liberal Berlin?6%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraGermany’s Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania states head to polls6%
- Deutsche WelleGerman state elections: voting underway in key polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — follow DW6%
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Polls open in two key state elections6%
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Voting underway in two key state elections6%
- Deutsche WelleGermany's Merz under pressure as AfD eyes second state win6%
- Deutsche WelleFar-right AfD wins state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, CDU fails to enter parliament6%
- Deutsche WelleGermany: AfD wins in northeastern state, Left in Berlin6%
- Latest articlesGermans vote in elections threatening fresh blow to Merz6%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesWill German's far right party AfD win over two more regions?5%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesAfD threatens fresh blow to Merz: Two German states hold key vote5%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany’s far-right AfD makes strong gains in two state elections7%▲2 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleAfD makes gains in state elections, but has no government options6%▼1 points since the previous source
- Latest articlesMerz’s conservatives set to crash out of German state parliament7%▲1 points since the previous source
- kyivindependent.comMerz decries 'disaster' as far-right AfD party set for big win in regional German elections7%
- Times of IndiaAfD tops another German state poll, Merz’s CDU crashes to historic low7%
- Hacker NewsFar-left party wins Berlin election, pledging to nationalise housing7%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesFive takeaways from Germany's regional elections after far-right gains7%
- Latest articlesFive takeaways from Germany’s regional elections6%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesGermany: CDU suffers a crushing defeat in the regional elections7%▲1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesAfD surges as Merz’s CDU suffers regional elections setback6%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesRegional losses for Germany's ruling CDU5%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSorbonne Professor Hans Stark: 'Merz is in a very, very fragile situation'3%▼1 points since the previous source
- AxiosFar-right AfD wins again as Germany's Merz slides3%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWhy the world should care about the far right’s rise in Germany1%▼2 points since the previous source
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesPolitical shifts may shape how quickly Germany adopts electric cars and solar power1%
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Why the world should care about the far right’s rise in Germany Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Far-right AfD wins again as Germany's Merz slides Axios ·
- Germany’s Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania states head to polls Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Could Germany's far-right AfD party gain ground in liberal Berlin? NPR World ·
- In Germany’s east, old ties to Moscow fuel AfD rise News Feed ·
- Tens of thousands march across Germany to protest far-right party AfD Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Show 103 more sources
- Germany’s nostalgia problem News Feed ·
- The AfD won’t stop with Saxony-Anhalt News Feed ·
- Hard left holds key to Germany’s first far-right state premiership News Feed ·
- Can Germany’s economic recovery outrun the AfD? Finance & economics ·
- Trump calls to Make Germany Great Again. In Germany, nostalgia carries a dark past. Axios ·
- German far-right party taunts chancellor after its election triumph. He says it won't win a majority ABC News ·
- Who is voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany? News Feed ·
- Anti-AfD protesters rally in Cologne after far-right election win Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- What should Germany do about its rising right? The Economist ·
- Containing Germany’s Far Right The New York Times ·
- AfD’s Far Right Win Puts New Pressure on Germany’s Leader Merz The New York Times ·
- German vote shows rise of far right in Europe, but it hasn’t been a steady march ABC News ·
- German chancellor faces pressure after far-right party wins in state election ABC News ·
- Germany’s ‘Firewall’ Against the Far Right Is Being Tested as Never Before The New York Times ·
- After Victory in German State, Far Right Needs Help to Take Power The New York Times ·
- German far-right party candidate thanks Musk after state election win The Hill News ·
- AfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Sends a Signal to Europe The New York Times ·
- Germany’s AfD Could Win Its First State Government. Here’s What to Know. The New York Times ·
- Far-right AfD wins big in German regional election, falls short of majority CBS News Politics ·
- Germany’s Far Right Just Misses Majority in Crucial State Election The New York Times ·
- The Alternative for Germany has won its best-ever election result The Economist ·
- AfD just won 44% in a German state. Now Germany's firewall faces its biggest test. Axios ·
- In Germany, Ulrich Siegmund Is Bringing the AfD to the Cusp of Power The New York Times ·
- Political shifts may shape how quickly Germany adopts electric cars and solar power Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Sorbonne Professor Hans Stark: 'Merz is in a very, very fragile situation' France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Regional losses for Germany's ruling CDU France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- AfD surges as Merz’s CDU suffers regional elections setback France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Germany: CDU suffers a crushing defeat in the regional elections France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Five takeaways from Germany’s regional elections Latest articles
- Five takeaways from Germany's regional elections after far-right gains France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- AfD tops another German state poll, Merz’s CDU crashes to historic low Times of India
- Merz decries 'disaster' as far-right AfD party set for big win in regional German elections kyivindependent.com
- Merz’s conservatives set to crash out of German state parliament Latest articles
- AfD makes gains in state elections, but has no government options Deutsche Welle
- Germany’s far-right AfD makes strong gains in two state elections France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- AfD threatens fresh blow to Merz: Two German states hold key vote France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Will German's far right party AfD win over two more regions? France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Germans vote in elections threatening fresh blow to Merz Latest articles
- German state elections: voting underway in key polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — follow DW Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Polls open in two key state elections Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Voting underway in two key state elections Deutsche Welle
- Germany's Merz under pressure as AfD eyes second state win Deutsche Welle
- Far-right AfD wins state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, CDU fails to enter parliament Deutsche Welle
- Germany: AfD wins in northeastern state, Left in Berlin Deutsche Welle
- Germany braces for key state elections where far right party AfD seeks another breakthrough France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Will economy shape the vote? Deutsche Welle
- Germany news: Campaigns wrap up in two state elections Deutsche Welle
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: SPD seeks to fend off AfD Deutsche Welle
- 'No compromises': Far-right AfD has few potential partners Deutsche Welle
- Germany's judges seek to prevent AfD justice abuse Deutsche Welle
- Judges: As AfD ascends, Germany must bolster justice system Deutsche Welle
- After far-right AfD win, Germany’s embattled chancellor faces more election tests South China Morning Post
- Knobloch: Thoughts of the Nazi era are back in everyday life Deutsche Welle
- Berlin election driven by radical ideas Deutsche Welle
- Socialist Left leads far-right AfD ahead of Berlin vote Deutsche Welle
- East German leader styles self as one-woman bulwark to AfD Deutsche Welle
- SPD governor campaigns as one-woman bulwark against AfD Deutsche Welle
- SPD state premier campaigns as one-woman bulwark against AfD Deutsche Welle
- Ukraine: AfD questions German aid, Berlin remains committed Deutsche Welle
- Far-right AfD puts pressure on German aid to Ukraine Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Merz's CDU comes out on top in Lower Saxony polls Deutsche Welle
- Germany: CDU ahead in Lower Saxony local election Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Thousands rally against far-right after AfD victory France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Mass protests erupt in Germany as AfD eyes breakthrough in eastern states Times of India
- Germany news: Thousands protest against AfD in Düsseldorf Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Lower Saxony local polls in focus after AfD win Deutsche Welle
- Tens of thousands protest against far-right AfD party in Germany France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Germany: Protests follow AfD election victory France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Germany: AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz's CDU slumps to 7% France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Turks in Germany anxious after AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Far right lead in upcoming state election polls Deutsche Welle
- The far right’s political victory in Germany is great news for Putin Latest articles
- The Far Right Can’t Stand Being Called “Far Right” Mother Jones
- Far-right AfD party won big in Saxony-Anhalt. Will it affect Germany’s approach to China? South China Morning Post
- Far-right election win in Germany adds uncertainty to shaky China-EU relations South China Morning Post
- Trump hails 'really big night' for populists in German election after historic victory Fox News Politics
- Germany is in a very dark place — and time’s running out Latest articles
- Thousands protest in Germany as far-right AfD eyes first govt since Nazi Party Times of India
- Far right’s victory clouds Merz’s reform agenda as ally seeks changes Latest articles
- German economy frets about Saxony-Anhalt election results Deutsche Welle
- Germany’s Mess National Review
- BSW and AfD – a political love-hate relationship in Germany Deutsche Welle
- African migrants fear what comes next as far-right AfD wins 44% in German state election businessinsider.com
- Only the beginning? German far right's breakthrough shakes Europe to its core News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Saxony-Anhalt: Germany wakes up to 'unsettling' AfD victory Deutsche Welle
- AfD wants to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt — but how? Deutsche Welle
- Chancellor Merz says AfD result 'changes all of Germany' Deutsche Welle
- Saxony-Anhalt poll: 'A huge blow for the CDU, but also a huge win for the AfD' News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- How far-right AfD breakthrough may ‘cause absolute chaos’ in Germany News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- 'We’re all in crisis': Populist far-right 'trend' sweeping across Europe News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- 'Jubilation and pain': German far right marches to victory in key state election News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Germany’s Merz 'deeply shocked' by far-right AfD's historic electoral victory News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Germany's Merz vows to stick with reforms despite election drubbing by far right News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Germany’s far-right party AfD surges to historic victory in state election Fox News World
- Saxony-Anhalt: Digesting the AfD's landmark election win Deutsche Welle
- Germany set to feel the impact of Saxony-Anhalt's AfD win Deutsche Welle
- Saxony-Anhalt election: Why the AfD is so strong Deutsche Welle
- AfD celebrate projected win in Saxony-Anhalt BBC Politics
- 'Ready to talk': German far right celebrates victory in Saxony-Anhalt News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Germany’s far-right AfD wins big in key state election but falls short of majority News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Anti-migrant AfD seeks to break Germany’s political ‘firewall’ in historic state election Fox News World
- Germany's far-right AfD eyes historic state victory in Saxony-Anhalt election News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
- Far-left party wins Berlin election, pledging to nationalise housing Hacker News
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- Resolved Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 No 24d ago
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In this story
- Friedrich Merz
- AfD
- Christian Democratic Union
- Donald Trump