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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$367k
Liquidity$61k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
0%50%100%0%19 Sept, 08:09 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
25 Sept, 15:27 UTC0%
25 Sept, 09:50 UTC0%
25 Sept, 01:46 UTC0%
24 Sept, 18:02 UTC1%
24 Sept, 14:18 UTC1%
24 Sept, 02:05 UTC1%
23 Sept, 22:12 UTC1%
23 Sept, 16:42 UTC1%
23 Sept, 16:11 UTC1%
23 Sept, 15:03 UTC1%
23 Sept, 14:54 UTC1%
23 Sept, 14:23 UTC1%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC1%
23 Sept, 10:42 UTC1%
23 Sept, 10:24 UTC1%
23 Sept, 09:57 UTC1%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC1%
23 Sept, 01:59 UTC1%
23 Sept, 01:27 UTC1%
23 Sept, 00:54 UTC1%
23 Sept, 00:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:21 UTC2%
22 Sept, 22:54 UTC2%
22 Sept, 22:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:06 UTC3%
22 Sept, 20:57 UTC2%
22 Sept, 20:12 UTC1%
22 Sept, 18:34 UTC1%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC1%
22 Sept, 17:54 UTC1%
22 Sept, 16:46 UTC1%
22 Sept, 15:11 UTC1%
22 Sept, 13:23 UTC1%
22 Sept, 12:37 UTC1%
22 Sept, 09:36 UTC1%
22 Sept, 09:27 UTC1%
22 Sept, 08:14 UTC2%
22 Sept, 07:26 UTC2%
22 Sept, 06:45 UTC2%
22 Sept, 06:27 UTC1%
22 Sept, 04:59 UTC2%
22 Sept, 04:26 UTC1%
22 Sept, 03:46 UTC2%
22 Sept, 02:33 UTC2%
21 Sept, 22:09 UTC2%
21 Sept, 19:28 UTC2%
21 Sept, 18:51 UTC3%
21 Sept, 18:05 UTC3%
21 Sept, 17:43 UTC3%
21 Sept, 17:23 UTC3%
21 Sept, 16:56 UTC3%
21 Sept, 16:23 UTC3%
21 Sept, 15:55 UTC3%
21 Sept, 15:29 UTC3%
21 Sept, 14:55 UTC4%
21 Sept, 14:22 UTC4%
21 Sept, 13:53 UTC4%
21 Sept, 13:24 UTC3%
21 Sept, 12:56 UTC3%
21 Sept, 12:23 UTC3%
21 Sept, 11:31 UTC4%
21 Sept, 10:58 UTC5%
21 Sept, 10:10 UTC5%
21 Sept, 09:56 UTC6%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC6%
21 Sept, 08:37 UTC7%
21 Sept, 08:08 UTC6%
21 Sept, 06:57 UTC6%
21 Sept, 06:10 UTC7%
21 Sept, 05:55 UTC6%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC7%
21 Sept, 04:00 UTC7%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC7%
21 Sept, 02:55 UTC7%
21 Sept, 02:27 UTC7%
21 Sept, 01:35 UTC7%
21 Sept, 01:19 UTC7%
21 Sept, 00:38 UTC7%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC6%
20 Sept, 23:24 UTC6%
20 Sept, 22:22 UTC7%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC7%
20 Sept, 21:07 UTC8%
20 Sept, 20:54 UTC7%
20 Sept, 19:07 UTC6%
20 Sept, 18:32 UTC6%
20 Sept, 17:59 UTC5%
20 Sept, 17:29 UTC4%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC4%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC4%
20 Sept, 15:55 UTC7%
20 Sept, 15:28 UTC5%
20 Sept, 14:49 UTC5%
20 Sept, 14:15 UTC4%
20 Sept, 13:33 UTC5%
20 Sept, 13:24 UTC4%
20 Sept, 12:57 UTC4%
20 Sept, 09:27 UTC5%
20 Sept, 07:29 UTC6%
20 Sept, 04:46 UTC6%
20 Sept, 02:27 UTC6%
19 Sept, 23:32 UTC7%
19 Sept, 19:11 UTC6%
19 Sept, 15:50 UTC6%
19 Sept, 14:48 UTC6%
19 Sept, 14:28 UTC6%
19 Sept, 13:10 UTC6%
19 Sept, 12:58 UTC6%
19 Sept, 11:55 UTC6%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC5%

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What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before September 30, 2026, or if he announces his resignation or removal before that deadline. The No outcome applies if he remains in office through the entire period. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers a Yes resolution regardless of when the change officially takes effect.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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