Emirati Diplomat Lana Nusseibeh Enters UN Secretary General Race Hot: Odds moved 16 points in 24 hours
Lana Nusseibeh has secured Palestine's endorsement as a late contender to succeed António Guterres.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 13:14 UTC | 57% |
| 24 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 64% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 65% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 41% |
| 22 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 55% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 76% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 60% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 46% |
| 20 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 13% |
| 19 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 6% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 25 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 25 October at 19:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Lana Nusseibeh — the market puts it at 54%, with $28 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Lana Nusseibeh is confirmed as UN Secretary-General before January 5, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the confirmation date for the announcement date.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Lana Nusseibeh 54% +16
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In this story
- Lana Nusseibeh
- UAE
- UN
- Palestine