Congo Ebola Death Toll Tops 4,000 as Outbreak Spreads to New Zones

The Democratic Republic of Congo reports over 4,000 deaths and 8,000 cases as the World Health Organization warns of spreading infection and health worker shortages.

15 publishers · 45 articles · first seen 11 Sept 2026 · updated 25d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Republic of the Congo

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 20 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	13%
1 Oct, 18:05 UTC	13%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	11%
28 Sept, 04:53 UTC	17%
28 Sept, 02:25 UTC	28%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC	20%
27 Sept, 11:33 UTC	19%
26 Sept, 23:34 UTC	18%
25 Sept, 19:18 UTC	14%
25 Sept, 04:42 UTC	20%
22 Sept, 21:55 UTC	18%

The story so far

15 publishers have covered this in 45 articles since 11 Sept 2026. MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians published first, on 11 September at 13:36 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 26h 22m later. The most recent article, from ABC News, appeared on 3 October at 06:17 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Feed: All Latest (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians, Latest articles, WHO | Regional Office for Africa, Deutsche Welle, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, STAT and 3 more, all listed under Sources below.

One prediction market prices this story:

Republic of the Congo — the market puts it at 13%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in the Republic of the Congo is officially reported between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about DR Congo for the relevant region, but only cases in the Republic of the Congo count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Republic of the Congo at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

11 Sept, 13:36MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians 3,349 Dead in Outbreak; Bouncy Castle Staph Infections; RFK Jr.'s Military Jet—
12 Sept, 15:58Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera DR Congo’s worst Ebola epidemic ever passes 7,000 cases—
14 Sept, 01:25Latest articles Congo’s worst-ever Ebola epidemic passes 7,000 cases—
15 Sept, 15:26WHO | Regional Office for Africa EBOLA BUNDIBUGYO VIRUS DISEASE OUTBREAK Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda Weekly External Situation Report 18, Data as of 13 September 2026—
16 Sept, 11:49Deutsche Welle Congo's Ebola epidemic may have gone unnoticed for months—
16 Sept, 11:49Deutsche Welle Congo's Ebola epidemic may have gone undetected for months—
16 Sept, 11:49Deutsche Welle Congo's Ebola epidemic might have gone unnoticed for months—
16 Sept, 15:29France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines WHO sees 'encouraging signs' in DR Congo Ebola response but says outbreak 'far from over'—
16 Sept, 16:23Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ebola fight in DRC ‘far from over,’ warns WHO chief—
16 Sept, 16:29STAT WHO expresses cautious optimism about bid to control Ebola outbreak in DRC—
Show 35 later sources
1. 16 Sept, 20:42Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Encouraging signs in DR Congo Ebola fight—
2. 17 Sept, 13:36Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa DR Congo says Ebola outbreak has passed its peak—
3. 17 Sept, 20:50MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians WHO Spots Some 'Encouraging Signs' in Congo Ebola Fight—
4. 18 Sept, 18:36Deutsche Welle Ebola: DR Congo outbreak not slowing, MSF warns—
5. 19 Sept, 09:59France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ebola outbreak reaches new areas in Democratic Republic of Congo—
6. 19 Sept, 18:18ABC News Congo begins Ebola vaccinations for health workers in outbreak epicenter—
7. 20 Sept, 00:36Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera DR Congo rolls out Ebola vaccine for health workers as death toll rises—
8. 20 Sept, 01:51Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera DR Congo begins Ebola vaccination trials for frontline health workers—
9. 21 Sept, 21:38MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians Congo Begins Ebola Vaccinations for Health Workers at the Center of the Outbreak—
10. 22 Sept, 14:14WHO | Regional Office for Africa EBOLA BUNDIBUGYO VIRUS DISEASE OUTBREAK Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda Weekly External Situation Report 19, Data as of 20 September 2026—
11. 23 Sept, 09:45Feed: All Latest The Organization Fighting Ebola Has Never Been More Worried18%
12. 23 Sept, 15:12ABC News Congo is running short of health workers as Ebola remains out of control, WHO says18%
13. 23 Sept, 21:37MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians Congo Is Running Short of Health Workers as Ebola Remains Out of Control, WHO Says18%
14. 24 Sept, 10:31Sky News DR Congo short of health workers as it battles 'out-of-control' Ebola outbreak18%
15. 25 Sept, 22:16Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak spreads to two new health zones, WHO says14%▼4 points since the previous source
16. 26 Sept, 10:56Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ebola spreads in DR Congo, putting neighbouring nations at risk14%
17. 26 Sept, 21:13NPR World Is Congo's Ebola outbreak coming under control?14%
18. 28 Sept, 09:54ABC News Congo Ebola outbreak tops 8,000 confirmed cases as disease remains out of control17%▲3 points since the previous source
19. 28 Sept, 13:17MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians 3,901 Dead in Outbreak; 8 Hospitalized After Cheese Consumption; New FDA Approvals17%
20. 28 Sept, 14:13South China Morning Post Congo politician beaten to death after urging Ebola prevention on radio, his party says17%
21. 28 Sept, 16:26Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ebola cases surpass 8,000 as DRC struggles to control outbreak17%
22. 29 Sept, 05:06Bloomberg Markets Ebola Disrupts Congo’s Childhood Vaccinations, Maternity and Health Services11%▼6 points since the previous source
23. 29 Sept, 05:24Latest articles Ebola is hollowing out basic healthcare as Congo’s outbreak surpasses 8,000 cases11%
24. 29 Sept, 10:09France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ebola a 'terrifying disease' as DRC faces 'decades of conflict' and overburdened healthcare system11%
25. 29 Sept, 10:09France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ebola a 'terrifying disease': Conflict-ravaged DRC faces overburdened healthcare system11%
26. 30 Sept, 13:39WHO | Regional Office for Africa Weekly Bulletin on Outbreak and other Emergencies: Week 36: 31 August to 6 September 20211%
27. 30 Sept, 21:52ABC News Congolese politician is killed for defending Ebola efforts as mistrust complicates response11%
28. 1 Oct, 05:18Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Mourners bury DR Congo official killed after defending Ebola response11%
29. 1 Oct, 12:07Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Funeral held for DR Congo politician killed after defending Ebola response11%
30. 2 Oct, 09:14Sky News More than 4,000 deaths recorded in DR Congo Ebola outbreak13%▲2 points since the previous source
31. 2 Oct, 11:24CBS News Ebola death toll in Congo tops 4,000 in fastest-growing outbreak on record13%
32. 2 Oct, 12:13Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories An Ebola treatment center was burned down as the death toll in Congo passes 4,00013%
33. 2 Oct, 12:56Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ebola death toll surpasses 4,000 as DR Congo struggles to suppress outbreak13%
34. 2 Oct, 14:25STAT An Ebola treatment center was burned down as the death toll in Congo passes 4,00013%
35. 3 Oct, 06:17ABC News Inside the study for a remedy to fight Congo's deadliest Ebola outbreak13%
NowCurrent odds13%

Sources

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Kalshi Republic of the Congo 13% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027
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Democratic Republic of Congo
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