Alberta Separatism Moves From Fringe Cause to Referendum
The movement has evolved from a fringe cause into a formal referendum.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 4% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 17 Oct 2026. ABC News published first, on 17 October at 14:34 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Yes — the market puts it at 2%, with $82k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 19 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if the 2026 Alberta referendum option asking the government to start the legal process for a separation vote passes. The outcome is No if that specific option fails or does not pass. Readers often mistake the final independence vote for the triggering event, but only the approval of this initial procedural step matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Yes 2% −1
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In this story
- Alberta