Yes
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$51k
Total volume$171k
Liquidity$171k
Resolves19 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the 2026 Alberta referendum option asking the government to start the legal process for a separation vote passes. The outcome is No if that specific option fails or does not pass. Readers often mistake the final independence vote for the triggering event, but only the approval of this initial procedural step matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%