Before 2027
Why it moved: +10 points at 21:31 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: UMich’s Stevenson on Fed Report, Inflation Reading — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Sept, 20:51 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if President Trump fires Jerome Powell before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not fire him by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a probe as the resolution event, but only an actual firing counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%