Iran (5+ times)
Implied probability 63%−9
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 72% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Iran five or more times during his Midterm Rally in Fort Myers, Florida, which is scheduled for October 23, 2026. The resolution depends solely on the count of references made at this specific event. Readers often mistakenly look for mentions of Iran in other rallies or news reports instead of focusing exclusively on the Fort Myers speech.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 63%
- No 37%