Transgender
Why it moved: +6 points at 00:56 UTC, after The Hill News: Trump says he will attend Georgia-Alabama football game in Tuscaloosa — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 93% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 94% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly says the word "Transgender" during his Midterm Rally in Mobile, Alabama, which was originally scheduled for October 2, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not say the word at that specific event. Readers often mistakenly believe any mention of transgender topics or speeches at other locations counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%