Below 36%
Implied probability 40%−2
24-hour volume$124
Total volume$71k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves7 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump's approval rating falls below 36% at any point between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, as reported by VoteHub. The outcome is No if his approval rating stays at 36% or higher throughout that entire period. Readers often mistake the specific date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only data from VoteHub during the specified window counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 40%
- No 60%