Above 13500
The market favoured Yes at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 98%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolved29 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +10 points at 13:55 UTC, after Quartz: Rivian's vehicle deliveries rose 46% year over year in the third quarter — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 86% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Rivian reports delivering more than 13,500 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if the total is 13,500 or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked Q3 2025 news for the relevant period, but only Q3 2026 data counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%