Luigi Mangione
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luigi Mangione is the number one search result on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global list for People in 2026. It resolves to No if he does not hold that top spot. Readers often mistake the arrest footage or general news popularity as sufficient, but only his ranking on this specific Google list matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%