Yes
Why it moved: +9 points at 10:46 UTC, after BBC News: Some New Yorkers hail ban on horse-drawn carriages, but drivers fear for incomes — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 97% |
| 22 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 96% |
| 22 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 98% |
| 22 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 97% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 97% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 98% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 96% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 95% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 97% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 93% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Oct, 23:00 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 95% |
| 21 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 95% |
| 21 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 93% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 94% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 91% |
| 20 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 93% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 95% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 95% |
| 16 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 96% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a law banning horse-drawn carriages for hire becomes effective in New York City before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the headline's mention of 2028 as the deadline, but the actual cutoff is January 1, 2027.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%