11+ wins
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$16k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Oregon college football team achieves at least 11 wins during the 2026 regular season. It resolves to No if they win fewer than 11 games or do not complete the season with that total. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the count includes postseason bowl games rather than just the regular season.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%