Pulido, 2+ pts
Why it moved: +12 points at 10:26 UTC, after The Guardian US: The Tejano singer trying to win back Latinos who voted for Trump, one quinceañera at a time — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 52% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in Texas's 15th District by a margin of at least two percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race entirely. Readers often mistake the linked story about Bobby Pulido for the decisive factor, but only the final certified election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 64%
- No 36%