Colom, 1+ pts
Why it moved: +35 points at 23:24 UTC, after BBC News: Democrat Scott Colom wins Mississippi Senate race in surprise victory for party — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 15:33 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 00:25 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Nov, 23:52 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Nov, 22:59 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Nov, 20:15 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 15:35 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Nov, 03:22 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Nov, 02:13 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Nov, 23:28 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Nov, 19:12 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 18:31 UTC | 10% |
| 10 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Nov, 12:13 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Nov, 11:05 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 10% |
| 10 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Nov, 21:36 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Nov, 21:21 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Nov, 20:25 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 19% |
| 9 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Nov, 14:50 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Nov, 12:03 UTC | 13% |
| 9 Nov, 06:03 UTC | 20% |
| 9 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Nov, 02:20 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 19% |
| 8 Nov, 22:28 UTC | 17% |
| 8 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Nov, 19:36 UTC | 17% |
| 8 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Nov, 18:03 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Nov, 11:06 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Nov, 09:05 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Nov, 07:16 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Nov, 05:59 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Nov, 05:18 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Nov, 22:36 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 21:29 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 27% |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 27% |
| 7 Nov, 14:20 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Nov, 10:48 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Nov, 07:55 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Nov, 06:46 UTC | 16% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Nov, 02:31 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 8% |
| 6 Nov, 20:39 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 20:09 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 17% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi by at least one percentage point. The outcome is No if the margin of victory is less than one percentage point or if the Republican Party wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about ballot preservation for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%