Above 130
Why it moved: −3 points at 21:02 UTC, after The Hill: Pentagon locks in 10-year F-35 jet deal — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 73% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lockheed Martin delivers more than 130 F-35 aircraft during fiscal year 2026. It resolves to No if deliveries are 130 or fewer. Readers often mistake the announcement of a contract for actual deliveries, but only the final count in fiscal 2026 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%