Above 45
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$667
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved17 Feb 2027
Why it moved: −7 points at 21:02 UTC, after The Hill: Pentagon locks in 10-year F-35 jet deal — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 8% |
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%