Above $250K
Why it moved: +25 points at 09:47 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Hermès Gets Rare Sell Calls as Goldman, UBS See Weaker Growth — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 08:47 UTC | 72% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Hermès Birkin bag sells for more than $250,000 at a Sotheby's auction in 2026. It resolves to No if no such sale occurs during that year. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any private sale or other auction house counts instead of only Sotheby's.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%