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Jadan Baugh

Implied probability 15%−12
24-hour volume$35
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves7 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −12 points at 16:47 UTC, after www.espn.com: Gators RB Baugh texts apology to Sumrall after loss: 'Won't let that happen again' — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Jadan Baugh
0%50%100%15%4 Oct, 16:17 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now15%
5 Oct, 16:47 UTC15%
4 Oct, 16:17 UTC27%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Jadan Baugh is named a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. It resolves to No if he does not receive that specific selection. Readers often mistake his apology or any other award for the required Heisman finalist status.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 15%
  • No 85%

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