Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 4%−2
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 10:00 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google officially releases Gemini 4 before October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake a product announcement or beta test for an official release.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%