Raphaël Glucksmann
Why it moved: +36 points at 10:22 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Who is Raphael Glucksmann, winner of the French left presidential primary? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 77% |
| 11 Oct, 09:56 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Raphaël Glucksmann is officially certified on the candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before June 30, 2027. It resolves to No if he fails to meet this requirement by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of a primary win or media announcement for the official certification date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 23%