Before 2030
Why it moved: +3 points at 08:00 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Japan’s Weather Agency Sends False Quake Alert, Startling Nation — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 16 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 34% |
| 15 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Japan or its territorial waters before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for resolving based on the date of the alert rather than the actual occurrence of the earthquake.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 34%
- No 66%