Matthew Jordan
The market favoured No at 74% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −25 points at 19:02 UTC, after BBC Sport: England's Jordan in contention at Alfred Dunhill Links — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 26% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Matthew Jordan holds the lead after the final round of the 2026 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. It resolves to No if he does not hold that specific position at that time. Readers often mistake current standings or earlier rounds for the final result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%