Above 500,000
The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 10%
24-hour volume$34
Total volume$66k
Liquidity$66k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 12 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Nov, 11:01 UTC | 4% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if ICE removes more than 500,000 people during fiscal year 2026. The outcome is No if that number stays at 500,000 or below. Readers often mistake the calendar year for the fiscal year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%