Before 2030
Implied probability 22%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 13 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California sequalification for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030. The outcome is No if this certification does not occur by that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about DOJ threats as the resolution criteria, but only the official certification counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 78%