Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$74k
Liquidity$42k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 20:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if Donald Trump permanently leaves his current office before January 1, 2027. Temporary suspensions, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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