Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)
The market favoured Iowa at 53% a day out, but Ohio State won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$746k
Total volume$753k
Liquidity$619k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 100% |
| 3 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 48% |
What counts
Ohio State wins if they beat Iowa by 15 or more points. Iowa wins if Ohio State fails to cover that spread. Readers often mistake the final score for the margin, but the point difference determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Ohio State 100%
- Iowa 0%
View this market on Polymarket →