Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Implied probability 90%+5
24-hour volume$623
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves1 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 12 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Oct, 03:31 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 88% |
| 12 Oct, 01:43 UTC | 86% |
| 11 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 85% |
| 11 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 85% |
| 11 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 84% |
| 10 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 60% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Raphaël Glucksmann appears on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, as published by the French Constitutional Council. If no official list is released before the vote, the outcome depends on who actually appears on the ballot during the election.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 11%
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