Will there be no House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 21:36 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 21:15 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 18:31 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Nov, 18:24 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 16:32 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 16:18 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 15% |
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What counts
A Yes outcome requires zero recorded votes in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth on the first House floor vote held by December 31, 2026. A No outcome occurs if at least one such vote takes place during that period. Readers often mistake procedural votes for the required floor vote or assume later votes count if the first one fails.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 77%
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