Will South Africa win?
Implied probability 46%+1
24-hour volume$927
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 46% |
| 8 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 45% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the scheduled Test match against Australia on October 9, 2026. It resolves to No if Australia wins or if the match ends in a draw. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the 2018 scandal for the actual event date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 46%
- No 55%
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