Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?
Why it moved: −4 points at 10:17 UTC, after Politico Congress: ‘Russ Vought’s gonna meet his match’: What Murkowski’s potential promotion means for the White House — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 9 Nov, 11:14 UTC | 13% |
| 9 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 17% |
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces she is leaving the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution relies on her official statements or a consensus of credible reporting regarding that specific action. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date of the party switch, but only the announcement matters within the deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%
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