Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new Claude Haiku model version 4.6 or higher appears on the Arena.AI leaderboard with a score of at least 1460. The final score is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after the model first shows up on that specific leaderboard page. Readers often mistake the launch date for the resolution deadline, but the actual check happens one full day later.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%
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