Venezuela Opposition Leader Breaks With Trump Over Oil Deal

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 15 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 15 October at 21:54 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? — the market puts it at 5%, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s president by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he endorses someone else or if the deadline passes without such an endorsement. Readers often mistake the source of truth, which requires official statements from Trump or credible reporting consensus, rather than informal rumors.
• María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 6%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a rally or election for the specific deadline when she must hold office.
• María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 1%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado effectively serves as Venezuela's head of state by the end of 2026. The outcome is No if she does not hold that position at that time. Readers often mistake public rallies or political influence for actual executive power.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.