US Issues Grid Emergency Order to PJM Amid October Heatwave Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours
The DOE empowers PJM Interconnection to manage generation and activate backup power at data centers through October 16 to stabilize the grid during peak demand.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 63% |
| 14 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 63% |
| 14 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 42% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 13 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 13 October at 10:53 UTC; Quartz followed 24h 27m later. The most recent article, from Quartz, appeared on 14 October at 11:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Times of India, Quartz.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 15 days — the market puts it at 63%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert applies for more than 15 calendar days in 2026. It resolves to No if that alert applies for 15 days or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an October heatwave as the sole trigger, but the resolution depends strictly on the total count of alert days throughout the entire year.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above 15 days 63% +18
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In this story
- DOE
- PJM
- Chris Wright