Above 15 days
Why it moved: +20 points at 12:13 UTC, after Quartz: DOE issued an emergency grid order to PJM as October heat strains power supplies — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 63% |
| 14 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 63% |
| 14 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert applies for more than 15 calendar days in 2026. It resolves to No if that alert applies for 15 days or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an October heatwave as the sole trigger, but the resolution depends strictly on the total count of alert days throughout the entire year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 63%
- No 37%