Trump policies face supreme court test in immigration, climate and guns cases

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 14 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 14 October at 11:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump — the market puts it at 7%, with $9 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court agrees to hear a case mainly about tariffs set by Donald Trump before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if the Court does not take such a case within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Iowa for the relevant event, but only a Supreme Court decision on tariff cases counts.
• Before Jan 20, 2029 — the market puts it at 3%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the total number of Supreme Court justices changes between now and January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if the court size remains exactly the same during that period. Readers often mistake the start date of the term for the deadline, but only the final count on January 20, 2029 matters.
• Before 2029 — the market puts it at 23%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a court ruling or executive action undermines US judicial independence before January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if that specific threshold is not met by the deadline. Readers often mistake general political controversy for the required legal undermining of judicial independence.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.