a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
Implied probability 16%−5
24-hour volume$44
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 21% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 01:20 UTC | 21% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court agrees to hear a case mainly about tariffs set by Donald Trump before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if the Court does not take such a case within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Iowa for the relevant event, but only a Supreme Court decision on tariff cases counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 84%