The man who inspired Elon Musk to shoot for Mars
Robert Zubrin's theories on colonising space rest on a controversial reading of American history.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 12% |
| 12 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. The Economist published first, on 9 October at 09:57 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Mars — the market puts it at 9%, with $440 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Aug 2099. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk travels to Mars before he dies or before August 1, 2099, whichever comes first. It resolves to No if that event does not happen within those limits. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than the earlier of his death or the specified year.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Mars 9% +1
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In this story
- Elon Musk
- Robert Zubrin