Speaker Johnson Walks Back Talk of Leaving Congress After House Losses
The Speaker intends to remain the House Republican leader even if his party loses control of the chamber.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 14 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 2% |
| 14 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 00:30 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 2% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 12 Oct 2026. Washington Post published first, on 12 October at 16:30 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Republican Party — the market puts it at 2%, with $416 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Republicans lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives between now and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only the official election results after November 3, 2026, determine the resolution.
- Mike Johnson — the market puts it at 57%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Mike Johnson announces he will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress after the news story is published and before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not make such an announcement within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the publication date of this specific news article for the start of the relevant period.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Republican Party 2% −2
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- Kalshi Mike Johnson 57%
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In this story
- Speaker Johnson
- House Republicans