Sheinbaum Vows to Buy US Goods for Trade Deal

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 13 October at 18:34 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• China — the market puts it at 6%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a free trade deal with China becomes law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or via a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement of talks for the actual passage of legislation.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 13%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a diplomatic walkout as the triggering event, but only an official US announcement of a qualifying economic arrangement counts.
• Claudia Sheinbaum — the market puts it at 25%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Claudia Sheinbaum visits the White House between December 9, 2025, and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about buying US goods as the resolution criteria instead of the specific visit to the White House.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.