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Serbian President Pushed Illegal Trump Tower Plan in Belgrade

Aleksandar Vučić intervened to advance the controversial project, which led to an indictment of senior regime figures for abuse of public office.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 15 Oct 2026 · updated 1h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
0%50%100%69%9 Oct, 20:20 UTCnowABC News: Serbian populist leader Aleksandar Vucic returns to tragedy-hit Novi Sad for preelection rally · 16 Oct, 18:36 UTCThe Guardian: Revealed: Serbian ruler’s secret role in ‘illegal’ effort to help Trump business · 15 Oct, 11:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
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The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 15 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 15 October at 11:00 UTC; ABC News followed 31h 37m later. The most recent article, from ABC News, appeared on 16 October at 18:36 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet).

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? — the market puts it at 69%, with $30k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Aleksandar Vučić is elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Serbia before June 30, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he does not assume the office through this specific process within that timeframe. Readers often mistake interim or caretaker appointments for a valid resolution, but only an elected and sworn-in Prime Minister counts.
  • Aleksandar Vučić — the market puts it at 72%, closing 31 Dec 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Aleksandar Vučić becomes Prime Minister of Serbia after the next general election and meets all constitutional requirements before December 31, 2028. It resolves to No if he does not assume that specific role within the stated timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the election period rather than the final date for meeting constitutional requirements.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Serbian populist leader Aleksandar Vucic returns to tragedy-hit Novi Sad for preelection rally ABC News ·
  2. Revealed: Serbian ruler’s secret role in ‘illegal’ effort to help Trump business The Guardian ·

Markets on this story

  • Polymarket Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? 69% −1 $30k 24hends 25 Oct 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Aleksandar Vučić 72% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Aleksandar Vučić
  • Trump Tower
  • Belgrade
  • Serbia
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