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Israel's Benny Gantz Drops Out of Election Race

Gantz withdraws after polls indicate his party is below the threshold to enter parliament.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 19 Oct 2026 · updated 2d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
0%50%100%0%10 Sept, 17:13 UTCnowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Benny Gantz drops out of Israel’s election race · 19 Oct, 18:11 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
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18 Oct, 10:15 UTC0%
18 Oct, 09:47 UTC0%
10 Oct, 08:30 UTC0%
10 Oct, 08:17 UTC0%
1 Oct, 03:41 UTC0%
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The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 19 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 19 October at 18:11 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — the market puts it at 0%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome requires Benny Gantz to be formally sworn in as Prime Minister after the October 27, 2026 election or any subsequent early election. The No outcome applies if he does not take office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake an interim caretaker role for a valid appointment, but only a formally sworn-in Prime Minister counts toward resolution.
  • Benny Gantz — the market puts it at 1%, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Benny Gantz formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before October 27, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date he announces his candidacy rather than the date he assumes office.
  • Benny Gantz — the market puts it at 1%, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Benny Gantz becomes Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not meet these conditions within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of his term rather than the specific date by which he must assume office.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Benny Gantz drops out of Israel’s election race Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·

Markets on this story

  • Polymarket Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 0% $1k 24hends 28 Oct 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Benny Gantz 1% $0 24hends 27 Oct 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Benny Gantz 1% $0 24hends 27 Oct 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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