IMF Lebanon Talks Progressing At Good Pace, Says Souaid
IMF official Souaid states that negotiations with Lebanon are advancing at a good pace.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 15 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 15 October at 08:32 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Lebanon — the market puts it at 6%, with $110 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Lebanon establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake general political dialogue or trade agreements for official normalization of relations.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Lebanon 6% +4
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In this story
- IMF
- Lebanon
- Souaid