Ian Darke's Early Premier League Impressions for All 20 Teams
Ian Darke analyzes the first weeks of Premier League action, questioning if Arsenal is more vulnerable than expected and if Brighton can make a top-four bid.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 65% |
| 10 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 65% |
| 10 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 62% |
| 9 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 62% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 61% |
| 7 Oct, 22:12 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 61% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 62% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 61% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 62% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 61% |
| 6 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 61% |
| 5 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 61% |
| 5 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 61% |
| 5 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 14:28 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Oct, 12:44 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 21:40 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 61% |
| 29 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 60% |
| 29 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 61% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 61% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 60% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Sept, 09:19 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 60% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 04:35 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 20:00 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 47% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 8 October at 12:05 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Arsenal — the market puts it at 65%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal wins the 2026-27 English Premier League title. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific championship. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mikel Arteta’s contract for a resolution condition, but only the league title matters.
- Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? — the market puts it at 2%, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 May 2027. Brighton wins if they finish first in the 2026-27 EPL standings before the season ends. The market resolves to "No" if Brighton is mathematically eliminated from contention or if the season is cancelled or delayed past June 14, 2027. Readers often mistake this for a single-match result rather than the final league table standing.
- Arsenal — the market puts it at 92%, closing 14 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal finishes in the top four of the 2026-27 English Premier League standings. It resolves to No if they finish fifth or lower. Readers often mistake the final league table for the deciding factor, but only the official final position matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Arsenal 65% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Arsenal 92%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Ian Darke
- Arsenal
- Brighton