Heisman Trophy Odds Shift as New Contenders Enter Top Rankings Before Week 8
Jesse Legree, Bear Bachmeier, and Malachi Toney join the top tier of candidates for the 2026 Heisman Trophy award.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 75% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 98% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 90% |
| 17 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 92% |
| 15 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 91% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 18 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 18 October at 11:58 UTC; feeds.bleacherreport.com followed 47h 01m later. The most recent article, from feeds.bleacherreport.com, appeared on 20 October at 11:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: SI Feed, feeds.bleacherreport.com.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Jeremiah Smith — the market puts it at 75%, closing 7 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jeremiah Smith is named a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. It resolves to No if he is not selected as a finalist. Readers often mistake being a favorite or rising in rankings for officially becoming a finalist.
- Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? — the market puts it at 20%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Dec 2026. For the Yes outcome, Darian Mensah must be officially named the winner of the 2026 Heisman Trophy. For the No outcome, he does not win the award. Readers often mistake the deadline for the announcement date rather than the ceremony date, or they assume a consensus of credible reporting is sufficient if the official source has not yet confirmed the result.
- Jeremiah Smith — the market puts it at 39%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 22 May 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jeremiah Smith is chosen as the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. It resolves to No if he is not selected first. Readers often mistake his college performance, such as tying an Ohio State record, for determining the outcome, but only the draft selection matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Jeremiah Smith 75%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? 20%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Jeremiah Smith 39% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Jeremiah Smith
- Jesse Legree
- Bear Bachmeier
- Malachi Toney
- Darian Mensah