SpaceX Launches Crew to ISS on Retiring Dragon Capsule

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on 5 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

1. 9 Sept, 18:35France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesWhose space is it? Europe scrambles as US rules satellite race—
2. 9 Sept, 19:56France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines'Passengers or pilots?' Europe looks to challenge US dominance in space sector with €10 billion plan—
3. 9 Sept, 20:27Ars TechnicaEurope may finally have found a space entrepreneur who is meeting the moment—
4. 10 Sept, 15:28France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesInternational Space Summit: Europe plays catch-up with US and China—
5. 10 Sept, 19:09Ars TechnicaEurope will go it alone on Venus mission after NASA yanks radar instrument—
6. 11 Sept, 11:00Ars TechnicaRocket Report: Europe joins the commercial launch club; a Ravn X sighting?—
7. 11 Sept, 16:20Ars TechnicaNASA moving at warp speed to set up US Space Academy—
8. 12 Sept, 07:27Times of IndiaFormer NASA specialist claims major breakthrough in overcoming Earth’s gravity—
9. 13 Sept, 10:30National ReviewThe Space Race That Will Decide the Future of Freedom—
10. 14 Sept, 18:00QuartzEuropean space startups are raising hundreds of millions to challenge SpaceX—
11. Show 122 later sources

    1. 14 Sept, 19:03Inc.SpaceX Is About to Put Its Starship Rocket to Work for the First Time. This Is What’s Riding on the High-Stakes Launch—
    2. 15 Sept, 08:31Latest articlesU.S. policies under Trump accelerate Europe’s push for space self-reliance—
    3. 15 Sept, 18:16TechCrunchSpaceX will try to put Starship in orbit for the first time on September 22—
    4. 15 Sept, 18:48Ars TechnicaSpaceX declares Starship ready for orbit, sets launch date next week—
    5. 16 Sept, 08:17Spotlight news onlySpaceX prepares for first orbital flight of Starship rocket—
    6. 16 Sept, 12:46www.theregister.comSpaceX aims Starship for orbit on September 22—
    7. 16 Sept, 14:11Bloomberg.comParis Space Show Abuzz With Direct-to-Device Satellite Plans to Challenge SpaceX—
    8. 17 Sept, 05:00South China Morning PostHong Kong to support rocket, satellite IPOs as SpaceX-led sector takes off—
    9. 17 Sept, 19:33ARTnews – ARTnews.comThe US Air Force Nearly Nuked the Moon. Amid a New Space Race, Artist Jitish Kallat Revisits the Secret Cold War Scheme—
    10. 17 Sept, 21:16decrypt.coYour Data Could Outlive the Startup You Gave It To. Elon Musk Wants to Buy What's Left—
    11. 17 Sept, 22:00South China Morning PostChina has gained pace in the space race by recovering rockets – but can it relaunch one?—
    12. 18 Sept, 00:00NatureEurope pushes for space independence amid geopolitical rifts—
    13. 18 Sept, 11:00Ars TechnicaRocket Report: China wants a Raptor 3 engine; SpaceX set for big Starship test—
    14. 18 Sept, 14:00New ScientistSpaceX’s Starship will orbit Earth for first time during next flight—
    15. 18 Sept, 17:54cnet.comI Toured the Company Mapping Space Debris. Then I Polled Worried and Hopeful Scientists—
    16. 18 Sept, 18:20QuartzSpaceX-Aktien fielen, da der erste Orbit-Testflug von Starship um eine Woche verschoben wurde.—
    17. 18 Sept, 18:30Inc.SpaceX Wants to Get Data for Grok Using This Controversial Bargain-Basement Method—
    18. 18 Sept, 18:40QuartzDie NASA hat SpaceX 946 Millionen US-Dollar für drei weitere bemannte Flüge zur Raumstation zugesprochen.—
    19. 19 Sept, 19:45EngadgetSpaceX targets September 28 for Starship's first orbital flight—
    20. 20 Sept, 09:00NPR PoliticsThousands of planned launches, terms of deal, worry some near Louisiana SpaceX site—
    21. 20 Sept, 12:00MarketWatchChina is chasing SpaceX and setting its sights on the global space economy—
    22. 21 Sept, 12:01www.theregister.comNASA gives SpaceX a billion reasons to keep flying Crew Dragon—
    23. 21 Sept, 14:02South China Morning PostChina gets closer to Jupiter mission by bringing Nasa’s StarNAV concept to life—
    24. 22 Sept, 15:39Bloomberg.comEU’s SpaceX Rival Won’t Get Free Pass, Antitrust Chief Warns—
    25. 23 Sept, 01:30South China Morning PostChina launches its first commercial radio-tracking satellites in electronic warfare leap—
    26. 23 Sept, 10:30Latest from Tom's HardwareChina launches 'Supercomputing-1' AI satellite as orbital data centers gather momentum—
    27. 23 Sept, 17:10Ars TechnicaFormer NASA chief sounds alarm on China's lunar "exploration" plans—
    28. 24 Sept, 13:00The New York TimesGoogle Is Sending an A.I. Data Center to Outer Space—
    29. 24 Sept, 14:15The VergeGoogle is sending an AI satellite into space next week—
    30. 24 Sept, 14:57Ars TechnicaNASA chief concerned China may deny access to parts of South Pole—
    31. 25 Sept, 05:00News FeedSpaceX pivots away from space—
    32. 25 Sept, 11:55EngadgetSpaceX Starship's first orbital flight test on track after successful launch rehearsal53%
    33. 25 Sept, 12:00New ScientistIs China catching up to the US and SpaceX on reusable rockets?53%
    34. 25 Sept, 14:07Ars TechnicaNASA green-lights billion-dollar infrared observatory for launch in early 2030s53%
    35. 26 Sept, 04:00News FeedEU turns to Norway and Canada for space launch sites53%
    36. 26 Sept, 08:08www.theregister.comSpace Jam: UK debuts space squadron to protect satellites53%
    37. 26 Sept, 22:00South China Morning PostClaims China’s BeiDou satellite was refuelled in orbit could change space race45%▼8 points since the previous source
    38. 27 Sept, 14:00The Hill NewsThese states are scrambling to become home to a US Space Academy49%▲4 points since the previous source
    39. 27 Sept, 17:24Energy & EnvironmentThe startup bringing the SpaceX playbook to nuclear power48%▼1 points since the previous source
    40. 27 Sept, 20:05BBC ScienceWatch: The ups and downs of SpaceX's 13 Starship test flights48%
    41. 27 Sept, 21:03BBC ScienceThe ups and downs of SpaceX's Starship test flights48%
    42. 28 Sept, 04:01The New York TimesSpaceX’s Starship Is Set to Make Its First Orbital Flight48%
    43. 28 Sept, 05:00Bloomberg TechnologyPolish Space Startup Eycore Taps Demand for Sovereign Satellite Intelligence43%▼5 points since the previous source
    44. 28 Sept, 06:50France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSpaceX to attempt putting Starship rocket into Earth orbit for first time43%
    45. 28 Sept, 08:34Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesSpaceX aims to put Starship in orbit for the first time43%
    46. 28 Sept, 09:15Hacker NewsSpaceX's Starship launching to orbit for first time ever today43%
    47. 28 Sept, 10:53All Content from Business InsiderWhy Starship's riskiest launch yet is such a big deal for Elon Musk's SpaceX43%
    48. 28 Sept, 11:00WIREDSpace Lasers Are About to Get Their First Real Test Generating Energy43%
    49. 28 Sept, 12:09The VergeSpaceX preps next-gen Starlink as Amazon’s competitor stalls43%
    50. 28 Sept, 12:20QuartzSpaceX is trying to send Starship to orbit for the first time, with Starlink satellites aboard43%
    51. 28 Sept, 12:20QuartzSpaceX versucht, Starship zum ersten Mal mit Starlink-Satelliten an Bord in die Umlaufbahn zu bringen.43%
    52. 28 Sept, 12:25MarketWatchSpaceX is moments away from monumental Starship launch43%
    53. 28 Sept, 12:40Scientific AmericanSpaceX’s Starship lifts off in make-or-break orbital test flight43%
    54. 28 Sept, 13:07Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesSpaceX's supersized Starship launches toward orbit for the first time43%
    55. 28 Sept, 13:15Times of IndiaSpaceX's 'biggest, most powerful' rocket reaches Earth orbit for first time43%
    56. 28 Sept, 13:19TechCrunchSpaceX’s Starship rocket reaches orbit for the first time43%
    57. 28 Sept, 13:21AxiosSpaceX launches Starship on first orbital flight43%
    58. 28 Sept, 13:27Just In NewsSpaceX launches Starship toward orbit for first time43%
    59. 28 Sept, 13:34News FeedSpaceX’s Starship rocket reaches orbit for the first time43%
    60. 28 Sept, 13:39Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX Starship Lifts Off for Key Orbital Test43%
    61. 28 Sept, 13:43Bloomberg.comS&P Falls on Inflation Worries, SpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit43%
    62. 28 Sept, 13:59BBC ScienceWatch: From launch to fiery splashdown, SpaceX's Starship completes orbit test43%
    63. 28 Sept, 14:20Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesNASA tests dual mode propulsion CubeSat ahead of launch43%
    64. 28 Sept, 14:49Bloomberg.comSpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit, Key Saudi Pipeline Repaired43%
    65. 28 Sept, 14:52South China Morning PostSpaceX’s Starship rocket reaches orbit for first time43%
    66. 28 Sept, 15:00Deutsche WelleSpaceX launches supersized Starship into orbit43%
    67. 28 Sept, 15:21theinformation.comSpaceX Launches Starship Into Orbit For The First Time43%
    68. 28 Sept, 15:25Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSpaceX’s showpiece Starship rocket reaches orbit for first time43%
    69. 28 Sept, 15:51Fortune‘We’re being extremely cautious here’: Starship reaches orbit for first time, but SpaceX cut its planned 10-hour trip after 3 hours43%
    70. 28 Sept, 16:22Bloomberg.comSpaceX Rocket Lofts Satellites, Nvidia's AI Security System43%
    71. 28 Sept, 16:24Bloomberg Technology‘I Hope Elon is Listening.’ South Africa Urges Musk on Starlink43%
    72. 28 Sept, 16:53The Guardian BusinessSpaceX's Spaceship reaches orbit for first time despite engine failure – video43%
    73. 28 Sept, 17:07Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX Starship Splashes Down in Pacific Ocean43%
    74. 28 Sept, 17:14EngadgetSpaceX's latest Starship mission reached low-Earth orbit43%
    75. 28 Sept, 17:23Bloomberg TechnologyStarship Reaches Orbit in Major SpaceX Milestone43%
    76. 28 Sept, 17:55cnet.comSpaceX Gets Starship Into Orbit for First Time, Despite Engine Issue43%
    77. 28 Sept, 18:17Bloomberg.comTrump Open to Iran Sanctions Relief, SpaceX Ends Mission Early43%
    78. 28 Sept, 18:24The Hill NewsWatch live: NASA, Boeing give update on future of Starliner43%
    79. 28 Sept, 18:47businessinsider.comBillionaire Elon Musk gets another opening for Starlink in South Africa amid 30% ownership hurdle43%
    80. 28 Sept, 19:03Times of IndiaSpaceX's Starship reaches orbit on its 14th flight after engine scare43%
    81. 28 Sept, 19:45Scientific AmericanNASA to attempt uncrewed and crewed missions with Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft43%
    82. 28 Sept, 20:40Inc.SpaceX Just Did Something Historic. The Economics of Rocket Launches Are About to Change in a Big Way43%
    83. 28 Sept, 21:26Ars TechnicaSpaceX's Starship goes orbital, deploying first next-gen Starlinks43%
    84. 28 Sept, 22:03MarketWatchSpaceX’s next big growth engine isn’t rockets — it’s this play on AI power, analysts say43%
    85. 28 Sept, 22:24Ars TechnicaBoeing "incredibly excited" to serve as nation's only astronaut transportation43%
    86. 28 Sept, 23:03FortuneNASA will try again with Boeing’s space capsule after an earlier mission was so botched it was reclassified as a crew-endangering ‘Type A mishap’43%
    87. 28 Sept, 23:48Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraFiery end for SpaceX Starship mission43%
    88. 29 Sept, 00:15The New York TimesDespite Setbacks, NASA Gives Boeing’s Starliner Spacecraft a Boost43%
    89. 29 Sept, 06:32Bloomberg MarketsSpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit Despite Engine Issue48%▲5 points since the previous source
    90. 29 Sept, 07:16CNETSpaceX Starship Flight 14 Reaches Earth’s Orbit for the First Time48%
    91. 29 Sept, 12:01www.theregister.comStarship finally makes orbit but engine trouble cuts the victory lap short48%
    92. 29 Sept, 13:50QuartzDer Triebwerksausfall der SpaceX-Starship bei ihrem ersten Orbitalflug trübte die Mondpläne der NASA für 2028.48%
    93. 29 Sept, 13:50QuartzSpaceX Starship's engine failure on first orbital flight clouded NASA's 2028 moon plans48%
    94. 29 Sept, 14:43Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesNASA ramps up support to get Boeing's astronaut capsule flying after Butch and Suni fiasco42%▼6 points since the previous source
    95. 29 Sept, 15:49Times of IndiaHow SpaceX’s latest Starship engine failure could affect Nasa’s Moon mission42%
    96. 29 Sept, 16:10Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesNASA announces new missions for Boeing Starliner spacecraft42%
    97. 29 Sept, 16:59MarketWatchCould SpaceX be worth $12 trillion one day? Citi says Starship gets it a step closer.42%
    98. 29 Sept, 17:00www.theregister.comBoeing's Calamity Capsule gets another shot at the ISS taxi business42%
    99. 29 Sept, 18:00Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesSpaceX's Starship rocket does its job during first orbital flight42%
    100. 29 Sept, 18:34Ars TechnicaNASA has a Dragon dilemma, and there appear to be no good answers42%
    101. 30 Sept, 12:43All Content from Business InsiderSpaceX puts a Starship veteran in charge of its Memphis data centers50%▲8 points since the previous source
    102. 30 Sept, 13:00Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesStarship's first orbital flight put its heat shield to the test50%
    103. 30 Sept, 18:28The HillBoeing's Starliner set for uncrewed test flight in December50%
    104. 1 Oct, 09:00Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX Set to Launch New Crew for NASA on Retiring Dragon Craft50%
    105. 1 Oct, 11:00New ScientistA lack of rockets is creating a crisis for space technology companies50%
    106. 1 Oct, 12:20QuartzGoogle is launching its AI chips into orbit for the first time on a SpaceX rocket50%
    107. 1 Oct, 12:20QuartzGoogle bringt seine KI-Chips zum ersten Mal mit einer SpaceX-Rakete in den Orbit.50%
    108. 1 Oct, 12:30South China Morning PostWhatever Trump claims, weaponisation of space makes losers of us all50%
    109. 1 Oct, 15:30Ars TechnicaAs US relations fray, Canada gets serious about its own launch industry50%
    110. 1 Oct, 15:38Bloomberg.comFlyDubai Pilot from Oman, SpaceX Launches Astronauts to ISS50%
    111. 1 Oct, 15:45Times of IndiaSpaceX launches Crew-13: 4 Nasa astronauts to study human health on ISS for 6 months50%
    112. 1 Oct, 15:54Bloomberg MarketsSpaceX Launches Crew for NASA on Retiring Dragon Capsule50%
    113. 1 Oct, 15:55Scientific AmericanGoogle tests its plan for AI data centers in space with Project Suncatcher50%
    114. 1 Oct, 16:22The Guardian USSpaceX launches crew to ISS successfully: ‘Thanks for an amazing ride’50%
    115. 1 Oct, 16:32BBC ScienceSpaceX launches crew to ISS50%
    116. 1 Oct, 16:52Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesSpaceX launches 4 astronauts on a fast track to the International Space Station50%
    117. 1 Oct, 19:00Scientific AmericanGoogle’s Project Suncatcher AI data center test has officially launched to space aboard SpaceX rocket50%
    118. 1 Oct, 19:18TechCrunchGoogle thinks SpaceX’s Starship has to launch 1,600 times before space data centers get off the ground50%
    119. 1 Oct, 20:54FortuneSpaceX sends 4 astronauts to the International Space Station on a record-fast 8-hour trip50%
    120. 2 Oct, 02:08www.theregister.comGoogle launches first datacenter satellite and research that finds orbiting bit barns can work50%
    121. 2 Oct, 08:06Times of IndiaGoogle sends its 'chips' to space in a refrigerator-sized satellite50%
    122. 2 Oct, 13:54Ars TechnicaRocket Report: SpaceX completes launch triple-header; Rocket Lab nets big contract50%
12. NowCurrent odds50%